Kusukela ngo-2025, imakethe yesibabule yasekhaya ibhekane nokwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo, amanani enyuka esuka cishe ku-1,500 yuan/ton ekuqaleni konyaka aya ngaphezu kuka-3,800 yuan/ton njengamanje, okuwukwenyuka okungaphezu kuka-100%, okufinyelela phezulu okusha eminyakeni yamuva nje. Njengezinto ezibalulekile zamakhemikhali, intengo ekhuphukayo yesibabule ithinte ngqo uchungechunge lwezimboni olungezansi, kanyei-sulfur dioxideImakethe, esebenzisa isibabule njengezinto zayo eziyinhloko zokusetshenziswa, ibhekene nezingcindezi ezinkulu zezindleko. Umshayeli oyinhloko walo mjikelezo wokwenyuka kwentengo uvela ekungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo emakethe yesibabule yomhlaba wonke.

Ukuqhubeka kokuncipha kokunikezwa kwamanye amazwe kuye kwandisa igebe lokunikezwa ngenxa yezici eziningi.

Ukuhlinzekwa kwesibabule emhlabeni wonke kuncike kakhulu emikhiqizweni engaphansi kokucubungula uwoyela negesi. Ukuhlinzekwa kwesibabule emhlabeni wonke ngo-2024 bekungamathani angaba yizigidi ezingu-80.7, kodwa ukuhlinzekwa kwehle kakhulu kulo nyaka. IMpumalanga Ephakathi ingumhlinzeki omkhulu kunabo bonke emhlabeni, ebalelwa ku-32%, kodwa izinsiza zayo zihloselwe kakhulu ukuhlinzeka ngezimakethe ezisafufusa njenge-Indonesia, okunciphisa ukutholakala kwayo emakethe yaseShayina.

I-Russia, inkampani ethumela kakhulu isibabule, yake yaba ngu-15%-20% womkhiqizo womhlaba wonke. Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yengxabano phakathi kwe-Russia ne-Ukraine, ukuzinza kwemisebenzi yayo yokucwenga kwehle kakhulu, kwathi cishe u-40% womkhiqizo wathinteka. Ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwehle kusuka cishe kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.7 ngonyaka ngaphambi kuka-2022 kwaya cishe kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.5 ngo-2023. Ekuqaleni kukaNovemba 2025, kwakhishwa umthetho wokuvinjelwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, owavimbela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ezinhlanganweni ezingaphandle kwe-EU kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, waqhubeka nokunqamula ezinye iziteshi zokunikezwa kwamanye amazwe.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwamukelwa kabanzi kwemithombo emisha yamandla kuholele ekunciphiseni ukusetshenziswa kwemithombo yamandla yendabuko njengophethiloli kanye nedizili. Ngokuhambisana nokuqaliswa kwesivumelwano sokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe yi-OPEC+ kwamazwe akhiqiza uwoyela, ukukhula komthamo wokucubungula uwoyela negesi emhlabeni wonke kuye kwama, futhi izinga lokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwemikhiqizo engaphansi kwesulfure liye lehla kakhulu. Okwamanje, ezinye izindawo zokuhluza e-Asia Ephakathi ziye zanciphisa kakhulu umkhiqizo wazo ngenxa yokugcinwa noma ukuncipha kwemithombo ekhona, okwandisa kakhulu igebe lokuphakelwa komhlaba.

Isidingo samazwe ngamazwe sikhula ndawonye

Nakuba ukunikezwa kwempahla kuncipha, isidingo samazwe ngamazwe sesibabule sibonisa ukukhula kwesakhiwo. I-Indonesia, njengesifunda esiyinhloko sesidingo esikhulayo, inesidingo esinamandla sesibabule esivela kumaphrojekthi okuncibilikisa i-nickel-cobalt (asetshenziselwa ukukhiqizwa kwezinto zebhethri) yizinkampani zasendaweni ezifana neTsingshan neHuayou. Isidingo esihlanganisiwe kulindeleke ukuthi sidlule amathani ayizigidi eziyi-7 kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2027. Ithani elilodwa lokukhiqizwa kwe-nickel lidinga amathani ayi-10 esibabule, okuphazamisa kakhulu ukunikezwa komhlaba wonke.

Isidingo esiqinile emkhakheni wezolimo siphinde sinikeze ukwesekwa. Isidingo somhlaba wonke somanyolo we-phosphate sizinzile ngesikhathi sokutshala kwentwasahlobo, kuyilapho isibabule sibangela ukukhiqizwa komanyolo we-phosphate okungafika ku-52.75%, okwenza kube nzima nakakhulu ukungalingani kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo emakethe yesibabule yomhlaba wonke.

Imakethe ye-sulfur dioxide ithintwa ukudluliswa kwezindleko

I-Sulphur iyinto eluhlaza eyinhloko yokukhiqizai-sulfur dioxideCishe u-60% wamandla okukhiqiza i-sulfur dioxide ewuketshezi eShayina asebenzisa izinqubo zokukhiqiza i-sulfur. Ukuphindwa kabili kwamanani e-sulfur kuye kwanyusa ngqo izindleko zayo zokukhiqiza.

Umbono Wemakethe: Amanani Aphezulu Angeke Ashintshe Esikhathini Esifushane

Uma sibheka phambili ku-2026, ibhalansi yokufunwa kokunikezwa kwempahla emakethe yesulfure cishe ngeke ithuthuke ngokuyisisekelo. Amandla okukhiqiza amasha emhlabeni wonke ayabambezeleka. Abahlaziyi babikezela ukuthi, esimweni esihle, amanani esulfure angadlula ama-yuan angu-5,000/ton ngo-2026.

Ngenxa yalokho,i-sulfur dioxideimakethe ingaqhubeka nomkhuba wayo ophansi wokunyuka. Ngezinqubomgomo zemvelo eziqinile,i-sulfur dioxideAbakhiqizi abanezinzuzo kumamodeli omnotho ojikelezayo kanye nezinqubo ezihlukile bazothola ithuba lokuncintisana, futhi ukugxila embonini kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngokwengeziwe. Izinguquko zesikhathi eside kuphethini yokufunwa kwe-sulfur yomhlaba wonke zizoqhubeka zithinta izindleko kanye nesimo sokuncintisana salo lonke uchungechunge lwemboni.

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